Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off
By: cryptosheadlines|2025/05/02 22:30:02
0
Share
Airdrop Is Live CaryptosHeadlines Media Has Launched Its Native Token CHT. Airdrop Is Live For Everyone, Claim Instant 5000 CHT Tokens Worth Of $50 USDT. Join the Airdrop at the official website, CryptosHeadlinesToken.com Bitcoin’s recovery to its all-time high may be threatened by rising recession fears, which could ease if the United States and China begin tariff negotiations this month, research analysts told Cointelegraph.Appetite for global risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) may take another hit, with analysts from Apollo Global Management predicting a recession by the summer.“Apollo predicting Summer Recession: Sharpest decline in earnings outlook since 2020,” cross-asset analyst Samantha LaDuc wrote in an April 26 X post.The progress on the tariff negotiations may be the most significant factor impacting a potential recession and Bitcoin’s price trajectory, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.Source: Samantha LaDuc“May is seen as pivotal as Chinese shipments reach the US’s shores, and exemptions on some tariff categories such as auto parts and sub-USD-800 shipments from China/ Hong Kong expire,” Barthere told Cointelegraph, adding that a lack of negotiations in May could lead to an economic recession and “double-digit losses” for Bitcoin.However, this is the least likely scenario, since neither China nor the US “ has an economic interest in the interruption of bilateral trade,” Barthere said, adding:“Given this, the main tariff scenario is for the US reaching deals or at least ‘agreements in principle’ with its main trade partners, probably settling around the 10% reciprocal tariff ‘floor’.”If that scenario plays out and trade tensions ease in May, Bitcoin is likely to revisit its all-time high, Barthere said. The US has “proactively reached out to China through multiple channels,” for signaling its openness for tariff negotiations, Reuters reported on May 1, citing unnamed sources who spoke to state-affiliated Chinese media platform Yuyuan Tantian.Related: Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam BackBitcoin may rally despite recessionWhile most analysts hope to see trade negotiations in May alleviate economic concerns, Bitcoin may see more upside even in the face of a potential recession.“Initially, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may experience volatility, dropping alongside risk assets like stocks due to investor sell-offs,” Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser, told Cointelegraph, adding:“Historical data, such as Bitcoin’s recovery post-2020 recession, suggests it could rebound, especially if seen as a hedge against inflation.”“In stagflation (high inflation and slow growth), Bitcoin, often compared to gold, may perform well, attracting investors seeking value preservation. Yet, its increased correlation with the stock market, particularly tech stocks, introduces uncertainty,” said Lian, adding that crypto investors should continue monitoring economic policy shifts to gauge market direction.BTC/USD, 1-week chart, 2020-2021. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewHowever, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with tech stocks adds uncertainty to that outlook. Following the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, Bitcoin surged more than 1,050%, climbing from $6,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That rally came after the Federal Reserve launched its $4 trillion asset purchase program in March 2020.Related: Bitcoin to $1M by 2029 fueled by ETF and gov’t demand — Bitwise execOther industry watchers remain concerned by the crypto market’s response to economic stagnation.“If the analysts are correct about the recession (which is certainly not guaranteed), crypto markets will likely decline alongside broader risk-on assets and equities,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of blockchain oracle firm RedStone.Kazmierczak said April’s “Liberation Day tariffs and trucking slowdown could create economic contagion that historically hits speculative assets hardest.” “While crypto’s growing institutional adoption introduces some uncertainty, it’s not enough to overcome the fundamental risk-on classification that still dominates market behavior,” he added.Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19Source link
You may also like

Value Distribution of Stablecoins
The issuance layer obtains user funds and takes the largest profit margin; the two middle layers rely on traffic, distribution commissions, and underlying infrastructure; the application layer enjoys convenience but has no bargaining power.

On the day of SpaceX's IPO, the first real test of the three perpetual mechanisms
The price has been discovered, and the market surrounding the price is still under construction.

Claude enforces "facial recognition for household registration," starting in July, no ID card means no access?
Anthropic has issued an urgent notice that Claude users may face real-name verification in July. From now on, every time you use Claude, you may need to be prepared with your ID.

After 18 years, blockchain has finally started to head towards the main channel
When AI becomes the new center of gravity in the capital market, the response of crypto VCs is not to stick to "Crypto-only," but to repackage crypto as the financial track, ownership layer, and autonomous system infrastructure of the AI era.

SpaceX IPO, Nvidia, and Bitcoin: Why Traders Are Watching More Than Just Crypto in 2026
Bitcoin recently plunged below $60,000 before rebounding, while SpaceX's historic IPO and Nvidia's continued AI momentum captured traders' attention worldwide. Explore why more crypto traders are looking beyond crypto in 2026 and what this shift means for emerging market opportunities.

Paul Graham: How to Make a Billion Dollars
Silicon Valley guru Paul Graham reveals the underlying logic of billion-dollar wealth: no need to cheat, just create products that users love intensely, allowing exponential growth to create wealth miracles.

If the AI bubble has already burst, who will truly remain?
What remains after the AI bubble bursts? The plummeting cost of computing power is driving AI to accelerate the reshaping of various industries. What will be left after the major reshuffle is an irreversible revolution in real productivity.

Morning Report | Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket jointly sue Kentucky over 14.25% trading tax; Bridgewater founder discusses decision-making in the AI era: principled thinking should run parallel to AI, human insight remains irre...
Overview of Important Market Events on June 15

What is the connection between Huang Zheng of Pinduoduo and blockchain?
From Pinduoduo's "reverse insurance" to blockchain's smart contracts, this article explains how Huang Zheng's underlying logic uses "certainty" rules to reshape the flow of wealth for ordinary people.

The other side of Musk's trillion-dollar fortune: 85% cannot be sold
SpaceX's IPO is a math problem, and the answer is not on the pricing day, but in the first quarter after the lock-up period ends.

The U.S. government prohibits foreigners from using Fable 5, Anthropic issues a rebuttal
The sudden removal of the two models has caused widespread shock in the tech industry and the AI community.

Citibank releases "2030 Asset Tokenization Market Outlook": 6 major trends may create a $8.2 trillion market
The tokenization of financial assets is moving from pilot projects to large-scale implementation, but this is a gradual evolution rather than a fierce revolution.

The trillion-dollar valuation test: Are the three major super IPOs a celebration for tech stocks or a nightmare for the crypto market?
Tech giants like SpaceX and OpenAI have sparked a $35 trillion super IPO wave. The "suction effect" is not enough to crash the stock and crypto markets, but the test of high valuations is just beginning.

Morning Report | Digital Asset completes $355 million financing led by a16z Crypto; Meta completes operational separation from Manus
Overview of Important Market Events on June 11

a16z Crypto Partner: Cash flow is the moat
Most companies spend years creating network effects on traditional infrastructure. Crypto founders inherit them as starting conditions.

Cryptocurrency market makers collectively seek change as it becomes increasingly difficult to make money
There is more and more to do.

How TradeXYZ, xStocks, and Alpaca break down the SpaceX IPO into three different strategies
The value of tokenized products ultimately depends on whether the underlying structure is sound, rather than just the price displayed on the interface.

$75 billion in risk asset redistribution: How will SpaceX's IPO affect U.S. stocks and Bitcoin?
The SpaceX IPO is short-term "capital competition" for the cryptocurrency market, while in the medium to long term, it leans towards "narrative endorsement" for Bitcoin.
Value Distribution of Stablecoins
The issuance layer obtains user funds and takes the largest profit margin; the two middle layers rely on traffic, distribution commissions, and underlying infrastructure; the application layer enjoys convenience but has no bargaining power.
On the day of SpaceX's IPO, the first real test of the three perpetual mechanisms
The price has been discovered, and the market surrounding the price is still under construction.
Claude enforces "facial recognition for household registration," starting in July, no ID card means no access?
Anthropic has issued an urgent notice that Claude users may face real-name verification in July. From now on, every time you use Claude, you may need to be prepared with your ID.
After 18 years, blockchain has finally started to head towards the main channel
When AI becomes the new center of gravity in the capital market, the response of crypto VCs is not to stick to "Crypto-only," but to repackage crypto as the financial track, ownership layer, and autonomous system infrastructure of the AI era.
SpaceX IPO, Nvidia, and Bitcoin: Why Traders Are Watching More Than Just Crypto in 2026
Bitcoin recently plunged below $60,000 before rebounding, while SpaceX's historic IPO and Nvidia's continued AI momentum captured traders' attention worldwide. Explore why more crypto traders are looking beyond crypto in 2026 and what this shift means for emerging market opportunities.
Paul Graham: How to Make a Billion Dollars
Silicon Valley guru Paul Graham reveals the underlying logic of billion-dollar wealth: no need to cheat, just create products that users love intensely, allowing exponential growth to create wealth miracles.
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Program:support@weex.com

