Kalshi Plans Permanent Futures for Gold, Forex, and Energy, Final Talks with Regulators
Expanding Permanent Futures to Traditional Assets Following Cryptocurrency
The prediction market platform Kalshi is in the final stages of discussions with U.S. regulators to offer permanent futures linked to gold, foreign exchange, and energy.
If approved, the company's permanent futures business will expand from cryptocurrencies to traditional asset markets.
Gold as a Priority Candidate, with Forex and Energy Under Consideration
Permanent futures are derivative products that do not have a set expiration date, unlike typical futures contracts, allowing traders to hold positions without rolling them over to a new expiration.
Kalshi launched permanent futures for cryptocurrencies in May, compliant with U.S. regulations, and the trading volume for related products has already reached approximately $16.1 billion (about 2.6 trillion yen). This plan aims to extend this mechanism to traditional assets such as gold, foreign exchange, and energy.
According to Udesh Jha, the company's Chief Risk Officer, the priority for product rollout is determined based on customer demand. Gold, in particular, has garnered interest from both retail and institutional investors, positioning it as a strong candidate.
Foreign exchange and energy are also being considered as areas with trading demand likely to arise from geopolitical events and seasonal market trends. Kalshi is also looking to offer permanent futures linked to stock indices and individual stocks in the future.
Competition with Robinhood Intensifies as Regulatory Market Grows
Kalshi's business expansion may further intensify competition with Robinhood, which is strengthening its multi-asset derivatives business.
Robinhood has launched multi-asset permanent futures that allow trading of cryptocurrencies, commodities, stock indices, and foreign exchange through a single collateral pool via Bitstamp. It is also reportedly preparing to expand permanent futures in the U.S., contingent upon regulatory approval.
By broadening its focus to gold, foreign exchange, and energy, Kalshi aims to capture trading demand across multiple assets, not limited to cryptocurrencies. If both companies' plans are approved, competition in the permanent futures market offered under U.S. regulation could intensify across commodities, currencies, stocks, and cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, there has been pushback from existing exchanges regarding permanent futures. CME Group criticized the approval of permanent futures for cryptocurrencies by Kalshi and Coinbase, and has sued the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) over permanent futures for retail investors.
The CFTC is currently continuing its review of permanent futures, including those related to energy products. Whether Kalshi's new products are approved could significantly influence the competitive landscape of the permanent futures market in the U.S.
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